Full Description

This study combines the concept of risk with fuzzy sets and provides asimple approach for prioritizing monitoring sectors in a distribution network (DN). An index-based approach is proposed to estimatevulnerability, sensitivity and risk indices at a given DN location. The approach is based on fuzzy-based techniquesthat include fuzzy synthetic evaluation and fuzzy rule-base. Two types of analyses, deterministic and probabilistic(ordinary Monte Carlo Simulation) are used to demonstrate the proposed approach for a DN in Quebec City(Canada) serving about 250,000 persons. Fifteen "input factors" related to the DN structural integrity, its hydraulics,water quality parameters and consumer sensitivity are used in the analyses. All of these variables were documentedin 52 sectors of the DN under study using a geographic information system (GIS). Based on index results, the DNis divided into various zones according to estimated risk. A sensitivity analysis of results reveals that four factors,including two sensitivity factors (i.e. percents of population under age 5 and older than 75) and two vulnerability factors (i.e. free residual chlorine and pipe breaks) explain 85% of the risk index variability. Includes 37 references, tables, figures.

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Edition: Vol. - No. Published: 11/01/2009 Number of Pages: 20File Size: 1 file , 1.4 MB